El Niño is back, and it might break the global temperature record!

Telangana is currently facing the brunt of scorching heatwaves and a delayed onset of the monsoon season, causing distress among its residents. Numerous districts are grappling with temperatures exceeding 40°C, while there are no promising signs of the much-awaited southwest monsoon. This has led to a sense of envy among the locals as they witness the stark contrast of abundant rainfall along the west coast due to the monsoon and Cyclone Biparjoy.

However, there is a glimmer of hope as the India Meteorological Department (IMD) recognizes favorable conditions for the further advancement of the Southwest Monsoon across the country. As per the latest bulletin, the northern limit of the monsoon (NLM), which marks its progress, presently lies near Puttaparthi in Andhra Pradesh. It is expected to reach more areas of South Peninsular and East India between June 18 and 21.

If these predictions hold true and the NLM does indeed advance into Telangana and Hyderabad during this timeframe, it will still be significantly delayed. Normally, the Southwest Monsoon arrives in Hyderabad around June 8, implying a delay of about 10-13 days this year, according to IMD data.

The IMD declares the onset of monsoon when at least 60% of the region's accessible weather stations record rainfall of 2.5 mm or more for two consecutive days after May 10. Additionally, specific technical parameters related to wind field and outgoing longwave radiation must align with this rainfall activity.

While the state anxiously awaits any signs of rainfall, the residents must endure a few more exceptionally hot days. The IMD forecasts that heatwaves will persist in certain pockets of Telangana throughout the rest of the week. However, relief is on the horizon for Hyderabad as thunderclouds are expected to dominate the city's skies in the next couple of days, eventually culminating in thundershowers starting from Saturday. This change in weather conditions should gradually alleviate temperatures from the scorching 39°C to a slightly more comfortable 37°C.

In a global context, the recurring weather phenomenon known as El Niño has returned. El Niño occurs when Pacific Ocean waters become unusually warm. After three years of the cooling La Niña pattern, the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) recently confirmed the onset of El Niño. This climate event is associated with record-breaking global temperatures, although it remains uncertain whether 2023 or 2024 will witness such extremes. Carlo Buontempo, the director of the EU's Copernicus Climate Change Service, believes it is more likely than not that El Niño will contribute to this temperature rise.

El Niño influences global temperatures and exacerbates the occurrence of extreme weather events. It stems from the oscillation between warming El Niño and cooling La Niña, driven by changes in ocean temperatures and winds in the Pacific. This year is already projected to be hotter than 2022, potentially ranking as the fifth or sixth hottest year on record. The effects of El Niño take several months to manifest, and it could contribute to 2024 breaking temperature records.

In conclusion, Telangana battles intense heatwaves and delayed monsoon onset, while the global scenario suggests the return of El Niño, which may result in higher average temperatures and heightened extreme weather occurrences in the coming years.